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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: How Long Is The Penguins Window To Win And How To Sustain It
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Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Jul 27 @ 2:16 PM ET
Ryan Wilson: How Long Is The Penguins Window To Win And How To Sustain It How Long Is The Penguins Window To Win And How To Sustain It
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 27 @ 2:32 PM ET
You have to look at how productive those older Sharks' stars were this past season. I agree, 5 to 7 years.
Leniwm1
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 02.24.2015

Jul 27 @ 2:42 PM ET
I feel bad for those Sharks, they are the West's Capitols. If a team 'deserved' to finally win, I say the Sharks.

As long as Malkin and Crosby are healthy, they can fill any holes on roster and still compete.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 27 @ 2:58 PM ET
1-2 year window.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 27 @ 3:01 PM ET
Cap is going to be pretty important to. If CAD has bottomed and goes up while league experiences moderate growth maybe we could see a cap at 85. With our core locked in their cap hits go down relative to cap over time. Which means more money to spend on supporting pieces. They could decline a little, but then crosby gets better support pieces.
mont23
Joined: 09.16.2005

Jul 27 @ 3:07 PM ET
1-2 year window.

Agreed that this is TB's window
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Jul 27 @ 3:07 PM ET
Easily a 5 year championship window, but as far as contending/qualifying for the playoffs 5-8 years


Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Maata all signed till 2021. That's 6 years we don't have to worry about free agency etc for them
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 27 @ 3:23 PM ET
Easily a 5 year championship window, but as far as contending/qualifying for the playoffs 5-8 years


Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Maata all signed till 2021. That's 6 years we don't have to worry about free agency etc for them

- DeflatedPucks


You have to worry about decline or long term injury. Letang is still one concussion away from game over. Malkin been hurt a bunch. Window is open but risks remain.

And I'm a little concerned with our pipeline in the minors now. How many guys do we have that look like potential impact top 6/top 4? I'm only counting Sprong maybe Guetzel. We've had a lot of people graduating lately.
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Jul 27 @ 3:29 PM ET
You have to worry about decline or long term injury. Letang is still one concussion away from game over. Malkin been hurt a bunch. Window is open but risks remain.

And I'm a little concerned with our pipeline in the minors now. How many guys do we have that look like potential impact top 6/top 4? I'm only counting Sprong maybe Guetzel. We've had a lot of people graduating lately.

- sditulli


I think in that case its fair to say Crosby is also a concussion away from game over. I anticipate a drop-off im all of their games, but even so, I'm confident Crosby and Malkin can anchor the top two lines for atleast 5 more good years. (ie, Pens don't need to worry about getting a top 5 draft pick or tanking for a top center, only supporting parts)

I see Sprong and Guentzel as top six options. Blueger and Sundqvist prob cap out as 4th line players. Wilson and Dea are the two wild cards for me. Prob top 9 but Im not sure their scoring will translate.
The time it took for Dumoulin to develop has prodded me to consider patience with Pouliot.
Other than Jarry, there isn't much left. But in the next 2-3, Pens have a chance to rebuild the farm.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 27 @ 3:32 PM ET
1-2 year window.

Agreed that this is TB's window

- mont23

Try 10-12 years buddy.
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Jul 27 @ 3:33 PM ET
Try 10-12 years buddy.
- Feds91Stammer



Flagged for ridiculousness of post
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 27 @ 3:42 PM ET
Flagged for ridiculousness of post
- DeflatedPucks

Flagged for missing all sarcasm.
Thorny
Location: OH
Joined: 10.15.2011

Jul 27 @ 4:13 PM ET
Is it next year, that TB have to decide on some of their younger core guys? I thought they had like 4-5 guys coming off of ELC that could get pretty ugly in terms of money for them. I would also imagine they are going to lose a really good player to the Vegas team

Edit Stupid quotes don't work, but that add for Hillary sure does...what a poop show
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 27 @ 5:01 PM ET
Is it next year, that TB have to decide on some of their younger core guys? I thought they had like 4-5 guys coming off of ELC that could get pretty ugly in terms of money for them. I would also imagine they are going to lose a really good player to the Vegas team

Edit Stupid quotes don't work, but that add for Hillary sure does...what a poop show

- Thorny

Next year they will have to make a decision. IMO Johnson is gone.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 27 @ 5:19 PM ET
I'd say the Pens have a four to five year window. While Sid and Geno may slow down a bit over those four to five years and as Wilson pointed out about Fleury going bye bye, and of course a rising cap, the Pens are in very good financial position to spend more around Sid and Geno maintaining a strong team.

I don't want speculate past the five years because who knows if Sid and/or Geno will remain with the team. It's easy to believe Sid will sign a reasonable extension with the Pens, but Geno could decide to move on.

The higher the cap would continue to get, the easier it is for the Pens to keep brining in higher and higher caliber players to support Sid and Geno.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 27 @ 5:19 PM ET
1-2 year window.
- Feds91Stammer


You know nothing, Jon Snow.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 27 @ 5:22 PM ET
Next year they will have to make a decision. IMO Johnson is gone.
- Feds91Stammer


I can't imagine they don't try to move Filppula or buy him out at the very least to make room for Johnson.

madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jul 27 @ 5:31 PM ET
5 years with good health for the stars.
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Jul 27 @ 5:46 PM ET
If last year taught anyone anything, it's that prognostications within a given year tend to end up being woefully inaccurate.

Predicting multiple years out? Total guessing game. The Penguins could end up nailing a ton of draft picks and the party goes on for decades. Or things could totally fall apart and we'll be left with this year to look fondly upon, which is more than a lot of fans get.
waitforawhistle
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: manteno, IL
Joined: 12.28.2009

Jul 27 @ 5:48 PM ET
Window can be extended if you trade Malkin for a couple of top prospects.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 27 @ 5:54 PM ET
Is it next year, that TB have to decide on some of their younger core guys? I thought they had like 4-5 guys coming off of ELC that could get pretty ugly in terms of money for them. I would also imagine they are going to lose a really good player to the Vegas team

Edit Stupid quotes don't work, but that add for Hillary sure does...what a poop show

- Thorny

But that's not a bad problem to have especially if yzerman keeps drafting well. Ship Johnson out for a saad package or picks. Get the assets to reload.

Pens lone problem for 33/34 yer old core is we need to add some impact draft players on the level of Murray/dumoulin for the time period. I think that will be difficult to add a young phenom when our pick will be late first hopefully next couple of years.

Our old core could definitely work if we can hit on a on some big time top 6 help and find a Jenner or saad type to add some young cheap productive legs. Not sure 34 year old Crosby will be able to elevate guys like sheary or dupuis at that point.

Pouliot turning into top 4 would be a big help too. But would help even more to find a 30 goal scorer your paying 800k.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 27 @ 5:55 PM ET
Devils advocate here, but I really think contending depends on your opposition.

Really, who pegged the Sharks as contenders until about the WCF? Didn't see them in too many predictions before the playoffs to be SCF. Also you can have the best roster in the world but if injuries hit you'll be a round 1 victim. Everyman & his dog had the Kings in the Final but they slipped out the back door (something Feds91 should do! ).

It's just so hard to win, is there any way of identifying possible winners until late in the playoffs? Realistically the Hawks were well loved aswell through the year, but their results were dependant on 2/3 players being Kane who was phenomenal early, Panarin who also was amazing & Crawford. You can't win Stanley riding 3 players - we all know that too well.

Young teams that might gel can also go under the radar & not be the sexy names to have 'contender' next to them - Flames come to mind here (who knows what they can achieve), Florida has grown from that description but again can they be considered a possible champion because they have some sexy names??? Who is to say Arizona won't throw some tremors into the league if they get their poop together - talented group???

Tanking on the other hand.................
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 27 @ 5:59 PM ET
But that's not a bad problem to have especially if yzerman keeps drafting well. Ship Johnson out for a saad package or picks. Get the assets to reload.

Pens lone problem for 33/34 yer old core is we need to add some impact draft players on the level of Murray/dumoulin for the time period. I think that will be difficult to add a young phenom when our pick will be late first hopefully next couple of years.

Our old core could definitely work if we can hit on a on some big time top 6 help and find a Jenner or saad type to add some young cheap productive legs. Not sure 34 year old Crosby will be able to elevate guys like sheary or dupuis at that point.

Pouliot turning into top 4 would be a big help too. But would help even more to find a 30 goal scorer your paying 800k.

- sditulli


I've said this before, later in Sid & Geno's career, hopefully we will have 1 of the best D in the NHL that can carry the team with Sid & Geno being the icing on the cake & not being relied on to do all the heavy lifting.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 27 @ 6:14 PM ET
If we do resign bonino one thing I would like to see us do is heavily structure his contract for two reasons. If he declines he's owed less cash than cap hit so easier to move to a budget team since he's not owed much. If he performs then might be able to do a brassard type trade and move him for someone younger whose about to sign a bigger deal. And the player is usually willing to accept a little less to get money sooner and protect against buyout.
We could do something like 5 years $22.
Year 1 $6
Year 2 $6
Year 3 $2 signing bonus $2 salary
Year 4 $2 signing bonus $1 salary
Year 5 $3 salary

Could create an opportunity where the guys performing after 2 years and you can offer him to a team like the senators whose cash costs are 3 years $8 which could be very reasonable if his stats look impressive on hbk.

Rangers with how much cash they have should do every contract like this. If they did something like this with girardi they might actually have his cash cost low enough to move him in a year or two. Feel like burkle could handle these type of deals but Lemieux probably cares about profitability more.

But if you have the financial resources to pay guys like this then you can gain a lot of leverage in trades with certain teams. And protect yourself if a guy declines. If he declines you could retain some to move his cap hit and get his cash costs down to vet min.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 27 @ 6:21 PM ET
I've said this before, later in Sid & Geno's career, hopefully we will have 1 of the best D in the NHL that can carry the team with Sid & Geno being the icing on the cake & not being relied on to do all the heavy lifting.
- Aussiepenguin

It's possible. But doubtful. Letang will either age well or get concussed and turn into ltir. Dumoulin has to turn into a 40 pt guy sort of like a josi. Maata has to turn into lidstrom light. And pouliot needs to become Brian Campbell. I think all of them have some potential to hit that ceiling but doubtful all three. Tops is becoming Nashville which is a big hill to climb.
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